Pharma Pipeline Health
MC SIMULATION Data updated: Jun 28, 2026
Expected drug approvals across 200 industry sponsors, computed via Monte Carlo simulation over 3,457 drug-indication programs using Wong probability-of-success rates.
What "pipeline health" measures
Pharma pipeline health is a forward-looking measure of how many FDA drug approvals a biopharma company is likely to produce from its current clinical-trial portfolio. We count distinct (drug × indication) programs at their lead Phase 1, Phase 2, or Phase 3 trial — about 3,457 programs across 200 western FDA-track sponsors — and run a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation using industry-standard Wong probability-of-success rates (Ph1 10%, Ph2 30%, Ph3 60%). The output is reported as median [80% CI] expected approvals per company over the program lifetime (~5-10 years).
Use this league to compare biopharma pipeline depth across competitors, identify companies with concentrated late-stage assets, or stress-test approval forecasts under different success-rate assumptions via the configurator below. Already-acquired companies (Shire, Allergan, Actelion, Karuna etc.) are excluded. Full methodology ↓
What this is not: expected approvals are unweighted by commercial value. One niche rare-disease approval ($50M/yr peak) counts the same as one oncology blockbuster ($20B/yr peak). A company with 5 high-value oncology Ph3 programs and a company with 5 small-population rare-disease Ph3 programs both score "5 expected approvals" — but the revenue outcomes differ by 100×. Cross-reference Compare's revenue and patent-cliff sections for the value dimension.
3,457
Active programs
Drug × indication × phase
1,316
Expected approvals
Industry-wide, all phases
104.2
Leader expected
AstraZeneca
200
Sponsors ranked
Top by MC expected
Probability of success:
Wong et al. 2019 global rates Big Pharma (22)
Tier 1Companies with revenue data tracked in Compare — top 5 free, rest in Pro.
| Company | Programs (P1/P2/P3) | Expected approvals (median [80% CI]) | Top indications | Recent terminations | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AstraZeneca 346 active · 255 programs | 43/91/121 | 104 [95–114] | non-small cell lung cancerbreast cancerasthma | 10 | vs Novartis → |
Novartis 239 active · 192 programs | 36/77/79 | 74 [66–82] | relapsing multiple sclerosisbreast cancerhidradenitis suppurativa | 16 | vs Merck → |
Merck Sharp & Dohme 215 active · 158 programs | 17/63/78 | 67 [60–75] | non-small cell lung cancercarcinoma, renal cellmalignant neoplasm | 5 | vs Roche → |
Roche 186 active · 134 programs | 20/51/63 | 55 [48–62] | non-small cell lung cancerbreast cancermultiple sclerosis | 11 | vs Eli → |
Eli Lilly 218 active · 154 programs | 51/45/58 | 53 [47–60] | obesityalzheimer diseaseoverweight | 5 | vs AbbVie → |
| Company | Programs (P1/P2/P3) | Expected approvals (median [80% CI]) | Top indications | Recent terminations | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AbbVie 187 active · 125 programs | 33/38/54 | 47 [41–53] | multiple myelomanon-small cell lung cancercrohn's disease | 11 | vs Pfizer → |
Pfizer 165 active · 116 programs | 23/37/56 | 47 [41–53] | breast cancermultiple myelomapneumococcal disease | 22 | vs Janssen → |
Janssen 162 active · 111 programs | 28/24/59 | 45 [39–51] | multiple myelomacarcinoma, non-small-cell lungprostatic neoplasms | 5 | vs Bristol-Myers → |
Bristol-Myers Squibb 121 active · 90 programs | 14/28/48 | 39 [33–44] | advanced solid tumorsschizophreniaalzheimer disease | 3 | vs GSK → |
GSK 143 active · 95 programs | 22/39/34 | 34 [29–40] | multiple myelomaasthmaneoplasms | 7 | vs Amgen → |
Amgen 103 active · 81 programs | 20/17/44 | 33 [28–39] | extensive stage small cell lung cancercardiovascular diseaseprostate cancer | 6 | vs Regeneron → |
Regeneron 102 active · 79 programs | 10/40/29 | 30 [25–36] | melanomamultiple myelomaatrial fibrillation (af) | 8 | vs Sanofi → |
Sanofi 115 active · 73 programs | 6/38/29 | 29 [24–34] | dermatitis atopicchronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polypschronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 6 | vs Takeda → |
Takeda 77 active · 57 programs | 2/18/37 | 28 [23–32] | ulcerative colitiscrohn's diseasealpha1-antitrypsin deficiency | 11 | vs Novo → |
Novo Nordisk 86 active · 61 programs | 21/9/31 | 23 [19–28] | obesityoverweightdiabetes mellitus, type 2 | — | vs Gilead → |
Gilead Sciences 61 active · 52 programs | 12/19/21 | 19 [15–24] | hiv-1-infectionpre-exposure prophylaxis of hiv infectiontriple negative breast cancer | 5 | vs Novo → |
Biogen 27 active · 18 programs | 1/2/15 | 10 [7–12] | muscular atrophy, spinalfriedreich ataxiasubacute cutaneous lupus erythematosus | 3 | vs Bayer → |
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated 31 active · 22 programs | 5/7/10 | 9 [6–11] | cystic fibrosisdiabetic peripheral neuropathic painpain | 1 | vs Biogen → |
ModernaTX, Inc. 25 active · 19 programs | 4/12/3 | 6 [3–8] | epstein-barr virus infectionsars-cov-2advanced solid tumors | 5 | vs BioMarin → |
BioMarin Pharmaceutical 20 active · 14 programs | 1/8/5 | 5 [3–8] | achondroplasiahypochondroplasiaphenylketonuria | — | vs Alnylam → |
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals 20 active · 17 programs | 5/8/4 | 5 [3–8] | obesitytransthyretin amyloidosis (attr) with cardiomyopathyvon willebrand disease (vwd) | — | vs BioMarin → |
Jazz Pharmaceuticals 17 active · 15 programs | 4/6/5 | 5 [3–7] | biliary tract cancerfocal seizuresextensive-stage small-cell lung cancer | 1 | vs Alnylam → |
Mid-cap Biotech (30)
Tier 2Companies with approved drugs and at least one Phase 3 program.
| Company | Programs (P1/P2/P3) | Expected approvals (median [80% CI]) | Top indications | Recent terminations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Boehringer Ingelheim 83 active · 61 programs | 26/18/17 | 18 [14–22] | obesitysmall cell lung carcinoma (sclc)idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis | 10 |
Daiichi Sankyo 49 active · 46 programs | 15/13/18 | 16 [12–20] | advanced solid tumorbreast cancernon-small cell lung cancer | 1 |
Incyte Corporation 53 active · 38 programs | 11/12/15 | 14 [10–17] | solid tumorschronic graft-versus-host-diseasemyeloproliferative neoplasms | 5 |
argenx 32 active · 25 programs | 2/8/15 | 12 [9–15] | generalized myasthenia gravismultifocal motor neuropathy (mmn)chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy | 2 |
UCB Biopharma SRL 31 active · 21 programs | 2/1/18 | 11 [9–14] | generalized myasthenia gravismoderate to severe plaque psoriasispsoriatic arthritis | 1 |
| Company | Programs (P1/P2/P3) | Expected approvals (median [80% CI]) | Top indications | Recent terminations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BioNTech SE 30 active · 29 programs | 5/15/9 | 10 [7–13] | non-small cell lung canceradvanced solid tumorextensive-stage small-cell lung cancer | 3 |
Bayer 35 active · 30 programs | 10/11/9 | 10 [7–13] | advanced solid tumorschronic kidney diseaseleft ventricular systolic dysfunction | 1 |
BeOne Medicines 39 active · 32 programs | 18/4/10 | 9 [6–12] | advanced solid tumorchronic lymphocytic leukemiab-cell malignancy | 4 |
Biocad 25 active · 18 programs | 1/5/12 | 9 [6–11] | hemophilia badvanced melanomaaxial spondyloarthritis | — |
Genmab 31 active · 22 programs | 3/12/7 | 8 [5–11] | diffuse large b-cell lymphomafollicular lymphoma (fl)malignant solid tumor | 9 |
ViiV Healthcare 24 active · 20 programs | 7/4/9 | 7 [5–10] | hiv infectionsinfection, human immunodeficiency virushiv | — |
Exelixis 19 active · 18 programs | 8/1/9 | 6 [4–9] | pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (pnet)locally advanced or metastatic solid tumorsrenal cell carcinoma (rcc) | — |
Ipsen 20 active · 16 programs | 1/9/6 | 6 [4–9] | primary sclerosing cholangitisepisodic migraineprimary biliary cholangitis | 1 |
BeiGene 18 active · 17 programs | 3/9/5 | 6 [4–8] | urothelial carcinomanon-small cell lung cancerbreast cancer | 7 |
CSL Behring 17 active · 11 programs | 1/4/6 | 5 [3–7] | hemophilia bsickle cell diseasecomplex cardiovascular surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass | — |
Colgate Palmolive 11 active · 7 programs | 0/0/7 | 4 [3–6] | plaque, dentalgingivitisoral malodor | — |
Octapharma 8 active · 6 programs | 0/0/6 | 4 [2–5] | hemophilia asevere hemophilia aacquired antithrombin deficiency | 1 |
Bio-Thera Solutions 9 active · 9 programs | 2/4/3 | 3 [2–5] | advanced solid tumorsdiabetic macular edema (dme)minimal change disease (mcd) | 3 |
Juno Therapeutics, Inc., a Bristol-Myers Squibb Company 11 active · 10 programs | 4/4/2 | 3 [1–5] | multiple myelomarelapsed or refractory multiple myeloma (rrmm)lupus erythematosus, systemic | 2 |
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited 8 active · 6 programs | 1/1/4 | 3 [1–4] | type ii diabetes mellitusmoderate-to-severe chronic plaque psoriasismoderate to severe genital psoriasis | — |
Cytokinetics 5 active · 5 programs | 0/1/4 | 3 [1–4] | heart failurepediatricsymptomatic non-obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy | 1 |
Telix Pharmaceuticals (Innovations) Pty Limited 9 active · 6 programs | 2/0/4 | 3 [1–4] | neoplastic diseasemetastatic castration-resistant prostate cancerccrcc | — |
PharmaEssentia 7 active · 6 programs | 1/2/3 | 2 [1–4] | polycythemia veraessential thrombocythemiaprimary myelofibrosis | — |
Karuna Therapeutics, Inc., a Bristol Myers Squibb company 8 active · 4 programs | 0/0/4 | 2 [1–4] | psychosis associated with alzheimer's diseaseschizophreniaalzheimer disease | — |
Swedish Orphan Biovitrum 8 active · 4 programs | 0/0/4 | 2 [1–4] | haemophilia a (moderate or severe)primary myelofibrosisvexas | — |
Insmed Incorporated 6 active · 5 programs | 1/1/3 | 2 [1–3] | pulmonary hypertensionpulmonary arterial hypertensionhidradenitis suppurativa | — |
Pharming Technologies B.V. 7 active · 6 programs | 0/5/1 | 2 [1–4] | apdsprimary mitochondrial diseasemitochondrial diseases | — |
Zealand Pharma 7 active · 4 programs | 0/1/3 | 2 [1–3] | short bowel syndromeshort bowel syndrome (sbs)congenital hyperinsulinism | — |
Bavarian Nordic 6 active · 5 programs | 0/3/2 | 2 [1–3] | monkeypox (mpox)chikungunya virusencephalitis | — |
Glaukos Corporation 10 active · 5 programs | 0/3/2 | 2 [1–3] | glaucomakeratoconusglaucoma, open-angle | — |
Clinical-stage with Phase 3 (98)
Tier 3No approved drugs yet, but at least one Phase 3 program. Highest M&A target density.
| Company | Programs (P1/P2/P3) | Expected approvals (median [80% CI]) | Top indications | Recent terminations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EMS 14 active · 14 programs | 0/0/14 | 8 [6–11] | type 2 diabetes mellitusprimary dysmenorrheatype ii diabetes | 1 |
Vanda Pharmaceuticals 17 active · 15 programs | 1/4/10 | 7 [5–10] | schizophreniasleep wake disordersnausea and vomiting | — |
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 19 active · 16 programs | 2/5/9 | 7 [5–9] | angelman syndrometransthyretin-mediated amyloid cardiomyopathy (attr cm)familial chylomicronemia syndrome | 1 |
Genentech, Inc. 42 active · 35 programs | 21/12/2 | 7 [4–10] | breast cancerdiabetic macular edemaadvanced prostate cancer | 4 |
Astellas Pharma Global Development, Inc. 29 active · 21 programs | 7/8/6 | 7 [4–9] | prostate cancerlocally advanced unresectable gastroesophageal junction (gej) adenocarcinoma or cancerurothelial cancer | 6 |
| Company | Programs (P1/P2/P3) | Expected approvals (median [80% CI]) | Top indications | Recent terminations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
ImmunityBio, Inc. 21 active · 21 programs | 6/13/2 | 6 [3–8] | long covidsepsisnsclc stage iv | 7 |
Allist Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 14 active · 13 programs | 2/5/6 | 5 [3–7] | nsclckras p.g12cadvanced colorectal cancer | — |
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals 16 active · 13 programs | 1/7/5 | 5 [3–7] | severe hypertriglyceridemiahypertriglyceridemiahomozygous familial hypercholesterolemia | — |
EMD Serono Research & Development Institute, Inc. 18 active · 18 programs | 8/6/4 | 5 [3–7] | advanced solid tumormetastatic or locally advanced unresectable solid tumorssolid tumors | 2 |
Otsuka Pharmaceutical Development & Commercialization, Inc. 14 active · 12 programs | 4/2/6 | 5 [3–6] | schizophreniapulmonary tuberculosisimmunoglobulin a nephropathy | 1 |
CanSino Biologics Inc. 15 active · 12 programs | 4/2/6 | 5 [3–7] | diphtheria, tetanus and acellular pertussismeningococcal meningitisepidemic meningitis | — |
Addpharma Inc. 23 active · 19 programs | 13/1/5 | 5 [3–7] | mixed dyslipidemiachronic liver disease (cld)benign prostatic hyperplasia | — |
Chiesi Farmaceutici S.p.A. 11 active · 9 programs | 0/3/6 | 5 [3–6] | asthmabronchiectasisfabry disease | 3 |
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc 12 active · 8 programs | 0/1/7 | 5 [3–6] | angelman syndromeosteogenesis imperfectamucopolysaccharidosis iiia | — |
Dizal Pharmaceuticals 18 active · 13 programs | 2/8/3 | 4 [2–6] | non-small cell lung cancerchronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphomanon small cell lung cancer | — |
Taiho Oncology, Inc. 13 active · 11 programs | 1/6/4 | 4 [2–6] | acute myeloid leukemiansclc, stage ib-iiiamyelodysplastic syndromes | — |
Revolution Medicines, Inc. 13 active · 12 programs | 3/5/4 | 4 [2–6] | non-small cell lung cancer (nsclc)pancreatic canceradvanced solid tumors | — |
Eurofarma Laboratorios S.A. 7 active · 7 programs | 0/0/7 | 4 [3–6] | androgenetic alopeciafemale pattern hair lossmoderate asthma | 7 |
Philogen S.p.A. 15 active · 15 programs | 5/8/2 | 4 [2–6] | glioblastomalocally advanced basal cell carcinomarenal carcinoma metastatic | 1 |
Intra-Cellular Therapies, Inc. 13 active · 9 programs | 1/3/5 | 4 [2–6] | generalized anxiety disorderirritability associated with autism spectrum disorderbipolar disorder, manic | — |
H. Lundbeck A/S 12 active · 11 programs | 3/4/4 | 4 [2–6] | migrainemultiple system atrophychronic migraine in children | — |
Chipscreen Biosciences, Ltd. 12 active · 12 programs | 5/3/4 | 4 [2–6] | pancreatic adenocarcinomat2dm (type 2 diabetes mellitus)advanced tumors | — |
Jemincare 21 active · 18 programs | 11/5/2 | 4 [2–6] | adpkd (autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease)chronic spontaneous urticariaallergic diseases | — |
DualityBio Inc. 11 active · 11 programs | 1/8/2 | 4 [2–6] | advanced solid tumoradvanced/metastatic solid tumorssolid tumor, adult | — |
Han Xu, M.D., Ph.D., FAPCR, Sponsor-Investigator, IRB Chair 7 active · 7 programs | 1/0/6 | 4 [2–5] | alk-positive non-small cell lung cancer (nsclc)breast cancersclc | — |
Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc. 9 active · 6 programs | 0/0/6 | 4 [2–5] | major depressive disorderfocal epilepsybipolar disorder | — |
Eisai Inc. 12 active · 11 programs | 3/5/3 | 4 [2–5] | early alzheimer's diseasenarcolepsyendometrial neoplasms | — |
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 14 active · 8 programs | 1/3/4 | 3 [2–5] | sickle cell diseasenon-transfusion-dependent alpha-thalassemiatransfusion-dependent alpha-thalassemia | 1 |
Immunovant Sciences GmbH 11 active · 9 programs | 0/7/2 | 3 [2–5] | chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathygraves' diseasegeneralized myasthenia gravis | 1 |
Neurocrine Biosciences 18 active · 7 programs | 0/3/4 | 3 [2–5] | schizophreniamajor depressive disordercongenital adrenal hyperplasia | 1 |
LaNova Medicines Limited 11 active · 10 programs | 0/9/1 | 3 [1–5] | advanced solid tumormalignant tumorslocally advanced or metastatic gc and gcj adenocarcinoma | — |
Alkermes, Inc. 7 active · 6 programs | 0/1/5 | 3 [2–5] | narcolepsy type 1bipolar i disorderschizophrenia | — |
Verastem, Inc. 10 active · 10 programs | 0/9/1 | 3 [2–5] | low grade serous ovarian cancernon small cell lung cancerpancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma | — |
Biotheus Inc. 11 active · 9 programs | 0/7/2 | 3 [2–5] | sclccrc (colorectal cancer)nsclc | — |
Zenas BioPharma (USA), LLC 7 active · 7 programs | 1/2/4 | 3 [2–5] | secondary progressive multiple sclerosisigg4 related diseasemultiple sclerosis (ms) primary progressive | — |
Deciphera Pharmaceuticals, LLC 9 active · 8 programs | 1/4/3 | 3 [1–5] | gistrenal cell carcinomatenosynovial giant cell tumor | 3 |
BeBetter Med Inc 8 active · 8 programs | 1/4/3 | 3 [2–5] | locally advanced triple-negative breast cancermild to moderate hypertension and elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterolpolycythemia vera | — |
Sinotau Pharmaceutical Group 7 active · 7 programs | 1/2/4 | 3 [2–5] | prostate cancercoronary artery disease(cad)ischemic cardiomyopathy | — |
Kedrion S.p.A. 5 active · 5 programs | 0/0/5 | 3 [2–4] | acquired factor x deficiencystiff person syndromechronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy | — |
Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc 8 active · 7 programs | 0/4/3 | 3 [1–5] | myelofibrosisrelapsed/refractory diffuse large b-cell lymphomadiffuse large b-cell lymphoma | 1 |
Grifols Therapeutics LLC 5 active · 5 programs | 0/0/5 | 3 [2–4] | alpha 1 antitrypsin deficiencycidp (chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy)hypogammaglobulinemia | — |
Avidity Biosciences, Inc. 6 active · 6 programs | 0/2/4 | 3 [1–4] | myotonic dystrophy type 1dm1facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy | — |
Evopoint Biosciences Inc. 9 active · 9 programs | 0/8/1 | 3 [1–5] | advanced solid tumorsrelapsed/refractory peripheral t cell lymphomafollicular lymphoma, grade 1 | — |
Applied Biology, Inc. 6 active · 6 programs | 0/2/4 | 3 [1–4] | chemotherapy induced alopeciacanitiestelogen effluvium | — |
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. 7 active · 5 programs | 0/0/5 | 3 [2–4] | fibromyalgiabinge-eating disordermajor depressive disorder with excessive daytime sleepiness symptoms | — |
Materia Medica Holding 5 active · 5 programs | 0/0/5 | 3 [2–4] | rhinosinusitisacute respiratory viral infectioncough | — |
Inmunotek S.L. 5 active · 5 programs | 0/0/5 | 3 [2–4] | rhinitis, allergicrhinitisallergic rhinitis | — |
Arcus Biosciences, Inc. 11 active · 9 programs | 4/2/3 | 3 [1–4] | advanced canceradvanced upper gastrointestinal tract adenocarcinomametastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma | — |
4D Molecular Therapeutics 9 active · 8 programs | 1/5/2 | 3 [1–4] | fabry diseaseneovascular age-related macular degeneration (namd)macular neovascularization secondary to age-related macular degeneration | — |
Praxis Precision Medicines 10 active · 5 programs | 0/1/4 | 3 [1–4] | epileptic encephalopathydevelopmental and epileptic encephalopathy 1focal epilepsy | — |
Almirall, S.A. 8 active · 6 programs | 0/3/3 | 3 [1–4] | hidradenitis suppurativanummular eczemadermatitis, atopic | — |
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals Inc. 10 active · 6 programs | 0/3/3 | 3 [1–4] | congenital adrenal hyperplasiaacromegalysst2-positive neuroendocrine neoplasms | — |
Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 9 active · 6 programs | 0/3/3 | 3 [1–4] | chronic hepatitis d infectionfragile x syndromeprimary biliary cholangitis | — |
OncoC4, Inc. 9 active · 9 programs | 3/4/2 | 3 [1–4] | advanced solid tumornon small cell lung cancermetastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer | — |
PT. Prodia Stem Cell Indonesia 8 active · 8 programs | 0/7/1 | 3 [1–4] | acute respiratory distress syndromeliver cirrhosesischemic stroke | — |
Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 7 active · 6 programs | 0/3/3 | 3 [1–4] | hypothalamic obesityprader-willi syndromeobesity | — |
Changchun BCHT Biotechnology Co. 11 active · 9 programs | 5/1/3 | 3 [1–4] | influenzarabies preventionpertussis (whooping cough) | — |
Replimune, Inc. 8 active · 8 programs | 2/4/2 | 3 [1–4] | merkel cell carcinomahepatocellular carcinomametastatic uveal melanoma | 2 |
GC Biopharma Corp 7 active · 7 programs | 2/2/3 | 3 [1–4] | varicella (chickenpox)fabry disesasesanfilippo syndrome type a | — |
CStone Pharmaceuticals 7 active · 7 programs | 2/2/3 | 3 [1–4] | advanced solid tumorsextranodal nk/t-cell lymphomaadvanced or metastatic ros1-positive non-small cell lung cancer | — |
Luye Pharma Group Ltd. 15 active · 11 programs | 5/5/1 | 3 [1–4] | schizophreniamajor depressive disorderrelapsed small cell lung cancer | — |
Corcept Therapeutics 9 active · 8 programs | 1/6/1 | 2 [1–4] | nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (nash)adenocarcinomacushing syndrome | — |
ADARx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 9 active · 7 programs | 1/4/2 | 2 [1–4] | hereditary angioedemaimmunoglobulin a nephropathy (igan)hereditary angioedema (hae) | — |
Kind Pharmaceuticals LLC 7 active · 7 programs | 1/4/2 | 2 [1–4] | anemia due to chronic kidney diseasecancer-related anemiaβ -thalassemia | — |
Longbio Pharma 8 active · 8 programs | 1/6/1 | 2 [1–4] | allergic diseaseschronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (crswnp)complement-mediated renal diseases | — |
Ferring Pharmaceuticals 5 active · 5 programs | 0/2/3 | 2 [1–4] | intermediate risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancerlow-grade upper tract urothelial carcinomanon-muscle invasive bladder cancer with carcinoma in situ | 5 |
Galderma R&D 6 active · 5 programs | 0/2/3 | 2 [1–4] | moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitischronic pruritus of unknown originsystemic sclerosis | — |
Eikon Therapeutics 6 active · 6 programs | 0/4/2 | 2 [1–4] | advanced solid tumorsadvanced melanomaadvanced solid tumor | — |
United Therapeutics 6 active · 5 programs | 0/2/3 | 2 [1–4] | esrd (end-stage renal disease)progressive pulmonary fibrosisidiopathic pulmonary fibrosis | — |
Amicus Therapeutics 4 active · 4 programs | 0/0/4 | 2 [1–4] | fabry diseaseglycogen storage disease type ii infantile onsetpompe disease (late-onset) | — |
Nuvation Bio Inc. 6 active · 5 programs | 0/2/3 | 2 [1–4] | non small cell lung cancernon-small cell lung cancer (nsclc)glioma | — |
Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. 4 active · 4 programs | 0/0/4 | 2 [1–4] | neovascular age-related macular degenerationneovascular age-related macular degeneration (namd)non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy | — |
Candel Therapeutics, Inc. 6 active · 6 programs | 0/4/2 | 2 [1–4] | prostate cancerprostate cancer patients treated by radiotherapynon small cell lung cancer | — |
Laboratorios Silanes S.A. de C.V. 4 active · 4 programs | 0/0/4 | 2 [1–4] | allergic rhinitisjoint paingout arthritis | — |
Teva Branded Pharmaceutical Products R&D LLC 8 active · 7 programs | 2/3/2 | 2 [1–4] | multiple system atrophyasthmacrohn disease | — |
TYK Medicines, Inc 9 active · 8 programs | 2/5/1 | 2 [1–4] | nsclcsolid tumor malignanciesmetastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mcrpc) | — |
Disc Medicine, Inc 6 active · 6 programs | 1/3/2 | 2 [1–4] | myelofibrosis; anemiasickle cell diseaseerythropoietic protoporphyria (epp) | — |
Onconic Therapeutics Inc. 8 active · 6 programs | 1/3/2 | 2 [1–4] | ovarian cancerpancreatic ductal adenocarcinomagastric cancer (gc) | — |
Debiopharm International SA 7 active · 6 programs | 1/3/2 | 2 [1–4] | prostate canceracromegalyglioblastoma idh (isocitrate dehydrogenase) wildtype | 3 |
Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. 7 active · 7 programs | 1/5/1 | 2 [1–4] | unresectable melanomamelanoma (skin cancer)metastatic non small cell lung cancer | 2 |
MAXVAX Biotechnology Limited Liability Company 9 active · 6 programs | 1/3/2 | 2 [1–4] | herpes zosterrespiratory syncytial virus (rsv)rotavirus infections | — |
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 4 active · 4 programs | 0/1/3 | 2 [1–3] | nash - nonalcoholic steatohepatitismash - metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitisnon-alcoholic fatty liver disease | — |
CatalYm GmbH 6 active · 6 programs | 0/5/1 | 2 [1–4] | metastatic non-squamous non-small cell lung cancerunresectable or metastatic hepatocellular carcinomacancer-associated cachexia | — |
Dompé Farmaceutici S.p.A 4 active · 4 programs | 0/1/3 | 2 [1–3] | persistent corneal epithelial defectnon-arteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathyatopic keratoconjunctivitis | — |
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. 7 active · 4 programs | 0/1/3 | 2 [1–3] | alzheimer's disease psychosislewy body dementia psychosishyperphagia in prader-willi syndrome | — |
Krystal Biotech, Inc. 8 active · 8 programs | 3/4/1 | 2 [1–4] | cystic fibrosisdystrophic epidermolysis bullosaneurotrophic keratitis | — |
AB Science 4 active · 4 programs | 0/1/3 | 2 [1–3] | amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (als)alzheimer diseaseacute myeloid leukemia refractory | 1 |
Akero Therapeutics, Inc 4 active · 4 programs | 0/1/3 | 2 [1–3] | nash - nonalcoholic steatohepatitisnash/mashnash with fibrosis | — |
Priovant Therapeutics, Inc. 4 active · 4 programs | 0/1/3 | 2 [1–3] | lichen planopilarisuveitis, posteriordermatomyositis | — |
Intellia Therapeutics 4 active · 4 programs | 0/1/3 | 2 [1–3] | hereditary angioedemaneuromuscular diseasetransthyretin amyloidosis (attr) with cardiomyopathy | — |
Pharmacosmos A/S 5 active · 4 programs | 0/1/3 | 2 [1–3] | iron deficiency, anaemia in childrenlimited stage small cell lung cancerbeta thalassemia major anemia | — |
Pharmazz, Inc. 7 active · 5 programs | 0/3/2 | 2 [1–3] | hypovolemic shockacute respiratory distress syndrome (ards)hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy | — |
Beacon Therapeutics 7 active · 6 programs | 0/5/1 | 2 [1–4] | x-linked retinitis pigmentosaachromatopsiax-linked retinitis pigmentosa (xlrp) | — |
Can-Fite BioPharma 5 active · 5 programs | 0/3/2 | 2 [1–3] | lowe syndromehepatocellular carcinomaplaque psoriasis | — |
Jina Pharmaceuticals Inc. 5 active · 4 programs | 0/1/3 | 2 [1–3] | metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, mcrpctriple negative breast cancerbipolar 1 disorder | — |
IDEAYA Biosciences 10 active · 8 programs | 5/1/2 | 2 [1–3] | uveal melanomametastatic uveal melanomaer+, her 2- breast cancer | — |
Immunocore Ltd 6 active · 6 programs | 2/2/2 | 2 [1–3] | advanced melanomatype 1 diabetesselect advanced solid tumors | — |
HK inno.N Corporation 8 active · 6 programs | 2/2/2 | 2 [1–3] | diabetes (dm)obesity & overweightmild to moderate atopic dermatitis | — |
Early-stage hot bets (50)
Tier 4 · sorted by heatPhase 1/2-only sponsors operating in therapeutic areas where big pharma has been actively acquiring. Wong PoS at this stage isn't precise enough to rank — heat captures "in-demand" instead.
| Company | Programs (P1/P2) | Hot TA match | Recent acquirers in space | Top indications |
|---|---|---|---|---|
TORL Biotherapeutics, LLC 8 active · 7 programs | 5/2 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | advanced solid tumorhistologically confirmed relapsed or refractory b-cell non-hodgkin lymphomafigo stage iii and iv ovarian cancer |
HC Biopharma Inc. 8 active · 7 programs | 6/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | advanced solid tumor canceradvanced solid tumorsystemic lupus erythematosus (sle) |
Xencor, Inc. 7 active · 6 programs | 4/2 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | ovarian canceridiopathic inflammatory myopathiesulcerative colitis (uc) |
CellSight Technologies, Inc. 5 active · 5 programs | 0/5 | 🔥 Infectious Disease | Merck, BioNTech | covid19non-small cell lung cancerhiv infections |
Multitude Therapeutics Inc. 5 active · 5 programs | 1/4 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | colorectal cancermalignant melanomaadvanced solid tumor |
Juventas Cell Therapy Ltd. 5 active · 5 programs | 2/3 | 🔥 Immunology | Gilead Sciences, Novartis | aiha - cold autoimmune hemolytic anemiab-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemiarelapsed or refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia |
iCell Gene Therapeutics 5 active · 5 programs | 3/2 | 🔥 Immunology | Gilead Sciences, Novartis | inflammatory bowel diseases (ibd)systemic lupus erythematosus (sle)multiple myeloma in relapse |
MapLight Therapeutics 5 active · 4 programs | 0/4 | 🔥 CNS | Otsuka Pharmaceutical, Collegium Pharmaceutical | schizophreniapsychosis associated with alzheimer's diseaseautism spectrum disorder |
Ellipses Pharma 4 active · 4 programs | 0/4 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | hormone receptor-positive breast canceradvanced solid tumoracute myeloid leukemia |
Apollo Therapeutics Ltd 4 active · 4 programs | 1/3 | 🔥 Cardiovascular | GlaxoSmithKline, Eli Lilly | pulmonary arterial hypertensionacute myeloid leukemia refractorycolorectal cancer |
| Company | Programs (P1/P2) | Hot TA match | Recent acquirers in space | Top indications |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Aadi Bioscience, Inc. 4 active · 4 programs | 1/3 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | endometrial cancertumor, solidneuroendocrine tumors |
BeyondBio Inc. 4 active · 4 programs | 1/3 | 🔥 CNS | Otsuka Pharmaceutical, Collegium Pharmaceutical | alzheimer diseaselocally advanced or metastatic pancreatic cancermetastatic colorectal cancer |
Biomea Fusion Inc. 4 active · 4 programs | 2/2 | 🔥 Metabolic | Neurocrine Biosciences, Novo Nordisk | type 2 diabetesobesityacute myeloid leukemia |
Stemline Therapeutics, Inc. 7 active · 4 programs | 2/2 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | breast canceradvanced breast cancermetastatic breast cancer |
TILT Biotherapeutics Ltd. 4 active · 4 programs | 3/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | platinum-refractory ovarian carcinomametastatic melanomalung cancer |
MacroGenics 4 active · 4 programs | 3/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | advanced solid tumorsplatinum-resistant ovarian canceradvanced solid tumor |
Coherus Oncology, Inc. 5 active · 4 programs | 3/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | hepatocellular carcinomanasopharyngeal cancer recurrentmetastatic solid tumor |
Nerviano Medical Sciences 4 active · 4 programs | 3/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | ovarian cancersmall cell lung cancerrelapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia |
Bio-Path Holdings, Inc. 4 active · 4 programs | 3/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | acute myeloid leukemia, in relapseacute myeloid leukemia (aml)solid tumor, adult |
Poseida Therapeutics, Inc. 4 active · 4 programs | 4/0 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | multiple myelomadiffuse large b-cell lymphoma, not otherwise specifiedbreast cancer |
Oncolytics Biotech 3 active · 3 programs | 0/3 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | ras-mutated metastatic colorectal canceranal cancer metastaticbreast cancer metastatic |
Puma Biotechnology, Inc. 3 active · 3 programs | 0/3 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | small cell lung cancer ( sclc )small cell lung cancerhormone receptor positive her-2 negative breast cancer |
Salubris Biotherapeutics Inc 3 active · 3 programs | 0/3 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | solid tumorheart failure with reduced ejection fractioncancer |
Brii Biosciences Limited 3 active · 3 programs | 0/3 | 🔥 Infectious Disease | Merck, BioNTech | chronic hepatitis b virus infectionchronic hepatitis b virus (hbv) infectionfor treatment of chronic hepatitis b virus infection |
CRISPR Therapeutics AG 3 active · 3 programs | 1/2 | 🔥 Immunology | Gilead Sciences, Novartis | warm autoimmune hemolytic anemia (waiha)cardiovascularb-cell lymphoma |
TaiRx, Inc. 4 active · 3 programs | 1/2 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | hcc - hepatocellular carcinomahepatocellular carcinomaadvanced solid tumor |
Agenus Inc. 3 active · 3 programs | 1/2 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | advanced canceradvanced melanomametastatic colorectal cancer |
STCube, Inc. 3 active · 3 programs | 1/2 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | non small cell lung cancermetastatic colorectal cancer (crc)colonrectal cancer (crc) |
Cellectis S.A. 3 active · 3 programs | 1/2 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | b-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemiab-cell non-hodgkin lymphoma (b-nhl)relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia |
NextCure, Inc. 3 active · 3 programs | 2/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | advanced solid tumorsovarian canceradvanced or metastatic solid tumors |
Marker Therapeutics, Inc. 3 active · 3 programs | 3/0 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | pancreas canceracute myeloid leukemia, in relapsenon-hodgkin lymphoma, adult |
Context Therapeutics Inc. 3 active · 3 programs | 3/0 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | triple negative breast cancer (tnbc)platinum-resistant ovarian cancermesothelin-expressing tumors |
Celyad Oncology SA 4 active · 3 programs | 3/0 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | unresectable metastatic colorectal cancerrelapse/refractory multiple myelomaacute myeloid leukemia |
Criterium, Inc. 4 active · 2 programs | 0/2 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | breast cancercolorectal cancerher2-positive metastatic breast cancer |
Allogene Therapeutics 4 active · 2 programs | 1/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | large b-cell lymphomasystemic lupus erythematosus (with and without nephritis)relapsed or refractory large b cell lymphoma, relapsed or refractory chronic lymphocytic leukemia, relapsed or refractory small lymphocytic lymphoma |
Hyundai Pharm 3 active · 2 programs | 1/1 | 🔥 Cardiovascular | GlaxoSmithKline, Eli Lilly | hypertensiontype 2 diabetes mellitus (t2dm)type 2 diabetes |
AGO Research GmbH 3 active · 1 programs | 0/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | recurrent epithelial ovarian, fallopian or peritoneal carcinomarecurrent vulvar cancerepithelial ovarian cancer |
MeiraGTx, LLC 4 active · 1 programs | 1/0 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | grade 2 and 3 late xerostomia caused by radiotherapy for cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract, excluding the parotid glandssquamous cell head and neck cancerparkinson's disease |
Alfasigma S.p.A. 6 active · 0 programs | 0/0 | 🔥 Immunology | Gilead Sciences, Novartis | ulcerative colitispolyarticular course juvenile idiopathic arthritisjuvenile idiopathic arthritis (jia) |
BicycleTx Limited 7 active · 7 programs | 0/7 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (pdac)metastatic urothelial cancernon-small cell lung cancer |
Hudson Biotech 8 active · 7 programs | 0/7 | 🔥 Metabolic | Neurocrine Biosciences, Novo Nordisk | obesityprediabetesatherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases |
Grit Biotechnology 7 active · 7 programs | 4/3 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | solid tumors, adultsolid tumor, adultadult |
Kumquat Biosciences Inc. 7 active · 7 programs | 6/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | solid tumor malignancieskras g12c mutationadvanced solid tumors |
Ryvu Therapeutics SA 6 active · 6 programs | 0/6 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | non-hodgkin lymphoma, b-celladvanced solid tumorsmyelofibrosis |
Hebei Senlang Biotechnology Inc., Ltd. 6 active · 6 programs | 2/4 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | multiple myeloma in relapseb-allt lymphoblastic leukemia/lymphoma |
Rise Therapeutics LLC 6 active · 6 programs | 6/0 | 🔥 Immunology | Gilead Sciences, Novartis | ulcerative colitis chronic mildcopd (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease)arthritis, rheumatoid |
BioInvent International AB 5 active · 5 programs | 0/5 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | solid tumor, adultadvanced malignanciesmelanoma metastatic |
Radiopharm Theranostics, Ltd 5 active · 5 programs | 2/3 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | brain metastases from solid tumorspancreatic ductal adenocarcinomacastration-resistant prostate cancer |
Autolus Limited 6 active · 5 programs | 2/3 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | relapsed or refractory b cell acute lymphoblastic leukemialupus nephritisprogressive multiple sclerosis |
Excyte Biopharma Ltd 6 active · 5 programs | 3/2 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | primary membranous nephropathyb-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemiarelapsed or refractory b-cell non-hodgkin lymphoma |
How the math works
Programs at lead active phase. For each company we count (drug × indication) programs at their highest currently-active phase — that's Wong's denominator. A drug running 12 active Ph3 trials in different indications counts as 12 programs (one per indication), not 12 trials of one program.
Monte Carlo simulation. We run 10,000 iterations per company with industry-average probability-of-success rates (Phase 1 → 10%, Phase 2 → 30%, Phase 3 → 60% from Wong). Each iteration flips a biased coin per program at its current phase; the simulation produces a distribution of total approvals over the program lifetime (~5-10 years).
Global rates only (not TA-specific). The same 10/30/60 rates apply to every program regardless of therapeutic area. Real success rates differ substantially — oncology is the worst, hematology and infectious disease the best. TA-specific rate weighting is on the roadmap; for now treat the league as TA-agnostic.
Wong TA-specific PoS reference table (not currently applied)
| Therapeutic area | Phase 1 → approval | Phase 2 → approval | Phase 3 → approval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hematology | 26.1% | 56.5% | 73.5% |
| Allergy | 23.4% | 51.5% | 75.0% |
| Endocrine | 17.7% | 38.3% | 65.0% |
| Ophthalmology | 13.6% | 27.8% | 65.0% |
| Respiratory | 13.2% | 36.4% | 70.6% |
| Infectious disease | 13.2% | 41.2% | 70.9% |
| Cardiovascular | 14.4% | 31.0% | 65.5% |
| Neurology | 14.2% | 30.5% | 51.9% |
| Gastroenterology | 11.0% | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| Oncology | 5.1% | 24.6% | 35.5% |
| Global average (used here) | 10.0% | 30.0% | 60.0% |
Source: Wong, Siah, Lo. Estimation of clinical trial success rates and related parameters. The oncology PoS is dramatically lower than other areas — a heavy-oncology pipeline (Roche, Merck) is meaningfully riskier than the global rates suggest, while a metabolic / endocrine company (Lilly's GLP-1 portfolio) sees higher real success rates.
Display: median [80% CI]. "9 [5–15]" means median 9 expected approvals across 10K MC runs, with 80% confidence the count lands between 5 and 15. The range matters more than the point estimate — small-pipeline companies have wide tails.
Recent terminations (last 12 months). Counts trials with status TERMINATED / WITHDRAWN / SUSPENDED whose primaryCompletionDate falls in the last 12 months. A noisy quality signal — termination can mean "drug failed" or "sponsor deprioritized" or "slow enrollment" — but elevated counts (≥5/yr) suggest execution issues worth investigating. Not the same as PoS.
Scope: FDA-track sponsors only. League covers western pharma developing for FDA approval. Chinese, Korean, Russian and other non-FDA-track sponsors are filtered out — outside the scope of this dashboard. Already-acquired big pharma (Shire, Allergan, Actelion, Loxo, Karuna etc.) are excluded too; their leftover trials persist in the data but the entities don't exist as standalone league participants.
Caveat: programs treated as independent. Correlated outcomes (same drug across indications, shared TA shocks) are not modeled. Use as baseline; apply your own judgment about correlation. Adjust PoS rates at top of page to test sensitivity.
Data: 149,402 trials from ClinicalTrials.gov (Phase 1-4, 2008+). Industry sponsors only.
PoS source: Wong industry-average rates (Ph1 10% / Ph2 30% / Ph3 60% — global, not TA-specific in this build).